This Remarkable Scoring Streak Fuels Villa's Surprising Push for Glory
Just 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard question to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have stacked up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they appear curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to save the day with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
His opener came from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the force he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.